Tag Archives: recession

Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two




An entertaining parody of the mindset of many of today’s economists. Also a great illustration of network externalities.




It's official.




The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted… Read More →




Are we sliding back into recession?




Robert Barr’s comments from the latest trend tracker: Is the recovery petering out?  Are we at the onset of another dip into recession?  The latest news seems ominous, and even former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan said in mid-July that “the economy hit an invisible wall in early June.” There are some hopeful signs, however, including a show of resiliency in the well-respected economic activity indexes published by the Institute of Supply Management.  And monetary policy remains in gear for economic growth, with continued low interest rates. One issue… Read More →




GDP positive in 2nd quarter, but disappoints some




The GDP report from the BEA raised a lot of concerns about the economic recovery, based on headlines and reports like this: 1. Steep decline in GDP growth raises alarms, 2. US recovery loses steam,   3. Double-dip feared as US economic growth loses pace, and 4. The closer you look at the GDP report, the uglier it gets, etc.  Mark Perry comments:  But how does GDP growth in this recovery (assuming the recovery started in third quarter of 2009) over the last four quarters (1.6%, 5%, 3.7% and 2.4%)… Read More →




Economy still mixed




It could’ve shaped up to be a good week. After all, the Senate pushed through a vote on bank reform, bellwether earnings weren’t all that bad, BP finally seems to have halted the spewing oil in the Gulf, the Northeast got a small reprieve from the heat wave — and last but not least — Apple announced plans to rectify “Antennagate.” Nevertheless, U.S. stocks ended the week on a sour note, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 250 points Friday. Bank reform moves ahead. This week,… Read More →




Are We Leaving the Recession Behind




The latest from Robert Barr in the Floral Trend Tracker. He makes a good point about the money that federal, state and local governments are borrowing for their programs. With a number of economic indicators flashing green over the past couple of months, it sure seems like we’re leaving the recession behind. Even new home sales are rebounding, up 15% in the last three months (May, through July) relative to the three months prior (February through April), even after seasonal adjustment. But even if we’re in a “statistical”… Read More →




Transition time




The latest from Bill Conerly: Original post at ConerlyConsulting.com




From the latest SAF Trend Tracker




From Robert Barr… Has the economic storm passed? The trashing of the wind and rain has settled down significantly, and perhaps it’s time for consumers and business to come up out of their shelters, look around, start removing debris, and start the economic recovery. That’s one way to think about the economic conditions today — but a more appropriate analogy is that the relative calm we’ve seen during the late spring and early summer is only the eye of a passing hurricane. We’ve gone through great economic tumult,… Read More →




Hark, what light in yon window breaks?




The latest from Bill Conerly:




Steps Businesses Should Take in the Midst of Financial Crisis




Here is an EXCELLENT short-list of action steps for the rest of the economic downturn heading into recovery: Love your customers. Get closer to them than you have ever been; understand and aggressively address their issues. In a poor economy, competition will increasingly be based on price, so that you need to be able to articulate your value proposition in order to justify holding your prices above the competition’s, or to be able to just hold on to the business; Love your bankers. Communicate with them; let them… Read More →