Tag Archives: recovery

New Estimates of the Housing Wealth Effect




A new report from the NBER by Charles W. Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer, and William Miles shows that “on average, a single dollar increase in housing wealth raises consumption by between five and eight cents.” If the value of a homeowner’s house rises by one dollar, how much will that homeowner increase spending on consumption? In The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution, and Wealth Shares (NBER Working Paper No. 17740), authors Charles Calomiris, Stanley Longhofer, and William Miles determine that the impact of… Read More →




Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two




An entertaining parody of the mindset of many of today’s economists. Also a great illustration of network externalities.




Outlook: Manufacturing Strength Despite Slow Economy




A host of factors, ranging from the tsunami in Japan to higher oil prices, have conspired to weaken the outlook for the overall U.S. economy, yet the manufacturing sector continues to forge ahead, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI U.S. Industrial Outlook, a quarterly report that analyzes 27 major industries. “The positive momentum of a 2 percent reduction in payroll taxes this year and 100 percent expensing of equipment and software investments has been more than offset by higher oil prices, and Japanese automakers in the U.S. faced a… Read More →




Leading economic index increases for 24th staight month (1st time in 40 years)




The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in March to 114.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in February, and a 0.2 percent increase in January (see graph below). Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board said: “The U.S. LEI continued to increase in March, pointing to strengthening business conditions in the near term. The March increase was led by the interest rate spread and housing permits components, while consumer expectations dropped. The U.S. CEI, a monthly measure of current… Read More →




Improvement still slow in coming




The latest from Bill Conerly (www.conerlyconsulting.com)…




Doing More with Fewer




Excellent post by Mark Perry regarding the increases in worker productivity…  Perry reported last week that real GDP finally increased above its pre-recession level in the fourth quarter of 2010, and the $13.38 trillion of real GDP (2005 dollars) was the highest-ever quarterly output in U.S. history, slightly higher than the previous record of $13.36 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2007 (see top chart above). But here’s what’s really amazing and is illustrated in the bottom chart: The U.S. produced slightly more output in Q4 2010… Read More →




The younger companies are, the more jobs they create, regardless of their size.




The popular perception that small businesses create most of America’s jobs has been the focus of heated debate for three decades. However, the more telling characteristic for predicting job creation is the age of the firm, not its size, according to a new study by John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. In Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young (NBER Working Paper No. 16300), the researchers conclude that the younger companies are, the more jobs they create, regardless of their size. Of course, all startup firms… Read More →




One small step…




The latest from Bill Conerly: Source: Bill Conerly Consulting (http://businomics.typepad.com)




2010 Business Year in Review




Care to take a guess at the top events affecting businesses in 2010? The struggling economy was voted the top business story of the year by U.S. newspaper editors surveyed by The Associated Press. The rest, as they say, is history. 1. Economy struggles: Climbing out of the deepest recession since the 1930s, the economy grows at a healthy rate in the January-March quarter. Still, the gain comes mainly from companies refilling stockpiles they had let shrink during the recession. The economy can’t sustain the pace. The lingering… Read More →




Commercial real estate indicator is positive




Note:  This index is a leading indicator for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the American Institute of Architects: Firm Billings Rebound in November At 52.0, the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) recorded a three point gain from the previous month, and reached its strongest level since December 2007. With ABI scores above the 50 level in two of the past three months, the prospects of a sustainable recovery in design activity are enhanced. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index showed expansion… Read More →