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The State of Horticulture Programs

September 7, 2011 by Charlie

This recent post from Lawn & Landscape News provides an excellent overview of the state of university horticulture programs across the country. Well worth the read.

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Earlier this year, Newsweek listed the Top 20 most useless degrees. And sitting close to the top at No. 2 was horticulture. (Don’t feel bad, journalism was No. 1.)The ranking was based on data that included the industry’s median starting salary ($35,000), median mid-career salary ($50,800) and percentage change in the number of jobs from 2008-2018 (-1.74). And the ranking reiterated many of the reasons university and college horticulture programs say they’re having trouble attracting students – the public’s perception is salaries are too low and a degree is, well, useless for a career that could involve planting and mowing.”Parents are sending their children to business school – the business schools are swelling,” says Roger Harris, professor and head of the horticulture department at Virginia Tech University. “There’s a perception that people don’t know what horticulture is … and there’s a perception that they can’t make a good living, which is totally false. Our students are making near the top of the college, as far as starting salaries. They’re working for competitive companies.”

Enrollment NumbersHere is a breakdown of undergraduate student numbers for the schools we spoke with. Note: the list is an apples to oranges comparison. For example, Brigham Young is strictly landscape management, while Colorado State is horticulture and landscape architecture.Brigham Young Universityexpects fewer than 200 students in its landscape management program for the upcoming schools year. In 2003, it had about 75 students.

Colorado State University has seen a stable number of about 400 students over the years.

Michigan State University’s enrollment has declined from 146 in 2005 to 110 in 2010. It’s two-year program had 112 students in 2005 and 70 in 2010.

Texas A&M University has about 200 students in its horticulture major and eight years ago it had about 140.

Penn State University’s horticulture program has been declining for nine years and has about 45 students. It’s landscape contracting program has stayed steady with about 120 students.

Virginia Tech University has about 85 students compared to about 150 15 years ago.

Advancing programs. As federal and state budgets were cut, it’s no surprise the trickle-down effect of that tightening hit hard many universities and colleges. Hort programs have seen budget cuts as high as 19 percent. Those who haven’t seen decreases have worked with flat budgets, which essentially equates to a reduction.

The cuts have meant the loss of faculty, extension and research programs. It’s meant horticulture departments merged with other departments. And it’s meant an increasing number of programs have looked externally for non-state sources of funding.

For example, at Penn State, tree care companies and the fruit and vegetable industries have helped pay either for teachers’ salaries or operating expenses. A trend Rich Marini, professor and head of the horticulture department, hopes the rest of the industry catches on to.

“The nursery and landscaping industries have been almost totally non-supportive in the past,” he says. “I think the future for the landscape and nursery programs at most universities (is) as tenured track people retire, they will probably be replaced with – as long as we have enough students – instructors, nine-month appointments, instructors with one to three year contracts.”

The changes in recent years haven’t all been gloom. Departments retooled to meet the needs of incoming students and the industry.

A glimpse of how things have changed in the last decade: Michigan State University added a Sustainable and Organic Horticulture concentration. Virginia Tech’s landscape contracting students receive a minor in entrepreneurship.

Colorado State University changed the name of its landscape horticulture major to environmental horticulture and added a landscape business concentration. Why the change?

“There were two main reasons: One was that name better reflects the nature of the program in a broader sense,” says Steve Wallner, professor and head of the department. “When you’re talking about the curriculum and what those students are interested in and hope to wind up doing, it really is all about outdoor spaces and outdoor environments, so environmental horticulture made sense from that point of view. Secondly, we thought it would be more appealing to students from a recruiting sense.”

Texas A&M University designed a degree with less science and more business and design skill emphasis in hopes to draw more students to the program. “The biggest change in the last five years has been our new BA degree program which has brought in some talented students that we would not have attracted previously,” says Tim Davis, former head of the horticulture department.

Of the schools Lawn & Landscape spoke with, the answers about whether the student population was decreasing or increasing were mixed. Many department heads said their horticulture majors have declined in enrollment, but landscaping majors or concentrations in landscaping, viticulture, enology and organic ag have held steady or increased. (See sidebar above.)

Since receiving PLANET accreditation in 2003, Brigham Young’s landscape management program has seen enrollment increase from about 75 students to about 200. During that time, production horticulture was also eliminated, said Phil Allen, professor of landscape management.

Virginia Tech had about 150 undergrads in its hort program 15 years ago; the numbers dropped steadily for years and recently stabilized around 85.

Harris says he pinpoints a few reasons for the decline – similar reasons multiple department heads gave.

No. 1, horticulture isn’t seen as a “professional” industry to many.

No. 2, land-grant universities with large engineering and business schools have raised the entrance bar and put caps on the number of students, making it difficult for students interested in any field to get accepted.

No. 3, the number of students transferring from community college systems or two-year programs has declined. “I think the community college system is suffering a little bit,” he says. “I think people are deciding to keep working instead of going to school because it’s an economic thing – they don’t know if it’s worth it or not. The hort programs that were feeding us a little bit, some of them have been discontinued – community college programs.”

A bright spot is that even with a national unemployment rate hovering around 9 percent, horticulture students are finding jobs. The number of job offers might not be as high as they once were, but there are still positions in most areas.

“I encourage students to consider areas where supply and demand ratios are very favorable, and areas where the demand is greatest include irrigation, and the account manager trainee type position and also plant healthcare or tree healthcare and arboriculture,” Allen says. “Those areas we could triple the number of students we have and every one of them could have multiple job offers when they graduate.”
Recruiting students. From an industry perspective, Kory Beidler, technical training manager at The Brickman Group, says he hasn’t noticed a difference in the number of students graduating nationwide, but the competition among companies trying to recruit the students has become fiercer.

“There is more big players nationally or even regionally that now have resources to do recruiting, where maybe 10-15 years ago there were only a few of us that really could spend the money or have the resources to go after colleges,” Beidler says. “Now they have a representation (at colleges and job fairs), so that’s why the competition has increased.”

Another trend companies have seen is a change in graduates’ expectations.

Beidler says he has seen an increase in the number of students interested in design, estimating or management jobs right after graduation, but there are only so many of those positions available, and especially within a commercial landscape maintenance company like Brickman.

“There is less eagerness among current college graduates to go into more physically demanding jobs,” says Gordon Ober, vice president of recruiting and development for the The Davey Tree Expert Co. “Many of today’s college students are also not as eager to work longer hours or pick up and move far away from home. Also, upper ranking students are not as willing to start at the bottom to learn the business and work their way to the top. They want a defined, short-term roadmap for advancement up and out of production positions. They expect to start as management trainees, account representatives/managers or supervisors.”

Still, those in the industry say the quality of student being produced is still high.

Brett Lemcke, vice president of R.M. Landscape and chairman of PLANET’s Student Career Days says the students he runs into at the annual event and at job fairs are the ones companies want to recruit because they show a real effort and enthusiasm for the industry.

“The quality (of students) is very strong,” he says. “They’re new to the industry, so they have a lot to learn but, at the same time, they’re willing to learn. They understand why we’re all here and what the business is about.”

Experience in the form of internships is one thing Beidler and Ober say they wish more graduates had on their resumes. The solution to that is two parts: Colleges requiring students perform internships in the field before graduating and more companies offering the opportunity.

William Vance Baird, professor and chair of Michigan State University’s Department of Horticulture, says internships should extend to high school students, which would give them an early experience and connection to the industry.

“Most of our students get interested in majoring by having some positive contact with horticulture,” he says. “The best recruiter is someone who gives them a chance to do something more with plants than dig holes and/or pull weeds all day; then they see that this can be a career. If companies can provide summer employment for high school students that is varied in scope and includes a few days shadowing the bosses, for example, or a trip to an industry event like an expo or a field day, it can really open their minds to what is possible.”
Attracting students. Many of the barriers the industry faces when it comes to attracting young people aren’t new. And some department heads and industry folks say even if an influx of students were interested in the industry, depending on their concentration, there may not be jobs. Still, moves need to be made to change the perception and draw more students to the industry.

From the university and college perspective, they’re trying to brand the industry as technical and professional and with resurgence in all things organic and eco-friendly, departments are pushing the message that the horticulture industry is a steward of the environment. They’re not only going after high school students but those already on campus that are undeclared.

“Students are interested in making the world a better place, making a difference,” Baird says. “Stress the positive contribution to the environment and quality of life made by our industries.”

But they can only do so much without the industry’s help. Many department heads say higher starting salaries would help. As well as the industry playing a larger role in helping high school students – or even younger – understand what it is the industry does.

Marini says when he arrived at Penn State he thought he had an easy recruitment solution, just visit high school science classes and college fairs.

“I quickly found out that we weren’t allowed to do that,” he says. “There are so many college recruiters attending high schools trying to recruit students that the high schools limit the number of times any university can visit them. So if Penn State can only go into a high school once, they don’t want the head of the horticulture department going.”

There are initiatives taking place with high school and middle school students – PLANET is involved with Future Farmers of America and has put together recruiting pieces and worked with state associations to promote the green industry – but every company can be part of the process, Lemcke says.

“Contact local horticulture programs or get into high schools and just talk about, as business owners or managers, the success you have, how fun and creative your jobs are and start pushing (the industry) that way,” Lemcke says. “As industry people, if we can go after (schools) and say, ‘Hey, I’m available, sign me up for whatever,’ that would help with momentum, getting people on board and filling up these classrooms.”
The author is an associate editor at Lawn & Landscape. She can be reached atclawell@gie.net.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: trends

If You Keep Digging You’ll Come Up in China

August 15, 2011 by Charlie

During the first week of August, a group of green industry folks (including myself) attended and presented at the Dalian International Horticulture Forum. Two of my colleagues have provided excellent commentary regarding our excursion so I am including links to their comments below:

Chris Beytes – GrowerTalks e- newsletter
Dr. Marvin Miller – America in Bloom newsletter column

Enjoy!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: international trade, trends

Recessionary demographics

August 13, 2011 by Charlie

From the Calculated Risk blog — Provisional birth rate data for 2010 was released in June and shows a possible impact of the last recession.

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Recent Trends in Births and Fertility Rates Through 2010. The NCHS reports:

The provisional count of births in the United States for 2010 (12-month period ending December 2010) was 4,007,000. This count was 3 percent less than the number of births in 2009 (4,131,019) and 7 percent less than the all-time high of 4,316,233 births in 2007.

The provisional fertility rate for 2010 was 64.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44. This was 3 percent less than the 2009 preliminary rate of 66.7 and 7 percent less than the 17-year high of 69.5 in 2007.

Here is a long term graph of annual U.S. births through 2010 …

U.S. Births per Year

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Births have declined for three consecutive years, and are now 7% below the peak in 2007. I suspect certain segments of the population were under stress before the recession started – like construction workers – and even more families were in distress in 2008 through 2011. Of course it takes 9 months to have a baby, so families in distress in 2010 probably put off having babies in 2011 too.

Notice that the number of births started declining a number of years before the Great Depression started. Many families in the 1920s were under severe stress long before the economy collapsed. By 1933 births were down by almost 23% from the early ’20s levels.

Of course economic distress isn’t the only reason births decline – look at the huge decline following the baby boom that was driven by demographics. But it is not surprising that the number of births slow or decline during tough economic times – and that appears to be happening now.

I don’t think the percentage decline in births will be anything like what happened during the Depression, but a 7% decline is pretty significant.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: demographics

Wal-Mart and an Analysis of Sustainability Index Hiccups

August 7, 2011 by Charlie

Some time ago, Wal-Mart announced its attempt to lead the creation of a sustainability index. The idea was to provide consumers with clear guidance on the impact of what they bought. Instead of wondering why one product cost a buck more than a different brand, they would have some information on why. Along the way, it was hoped that such transparency would lead to greater competition between firms to drive costs out of the system in a responsible fashion. So how’s that all going? According to Fortune (Jul 13), not so well, forcing Wal-Mart to back off some of its initial goals.

For complete story, CLICK HERE.

Hat Tip to Stan Pohmer for the link!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: sustainability, value proposition

American in Bloom Symposium

August 6, 2011 by Charlie

Celebrating 10 years of planting price and prosperity in local communities, it’s only fitting that America in Bloom (AIB) would return to our nation’s capital for its 2011 American in Bloom Symposium & Awards Program. This national conference, which will take place at the Doubletree Hotel Crystal City in Arlington, Va., Oct. 6 to 8, will draw hundreds of community leaders and active citizens from across the United States.

The perfect opportunity to learn and share ideas is the AIB symposium. This year’s program features the best in the field of public horticulture and tourism in the Washington, D.C. metro area. Learn how to grow healthy communities by working with schools on First Lady Michelle Obama’s “Let’s Move Cities & Towns Initiative.” Build a healthy canopy of trees and incorporate sustainable landscape solutions. Pick up ideas and solutions galore from exhibitors in the Showcase of Innovation and special gardens planted at River Farm.

Experienced AIB civic leaders and mayors will share the benefits they’ve witnessed from AIB participation and why they come back year after year. Many towns use foundations to fund beautification efforts and will share how you can too. The symposium also includes two inspirational keynote speakers: author and television personality Joe Lamp’l and Disney veteran Dennis Snow.

In addition to two solid days of education and tours, the 2011 AIB Awards Program will shine a spotlight on the best efforts from towns participating in this year’s competition. Honorary guests include Edward Avalos, undersecretary of marketing and regulatory programs for USDA, and the White House’s Chief Florist Laura Dowling.

For more information, go to www.americainbloom.org.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: America in Bloom

We enhance the quality of life…period.

July 26, 2011 by Charlie

The plethora of benefits provided by flowers, shrubs, and trees is not common knowledge, let alone ingrained in modern day American culture. Humans often have difficulty in even seeing flowers or plants in their own environment, much less connecting plants to tangible benefits – a phenomenon called plant blindness. For most people, flowers and other plants are a part of the subconscious sector of mental life, perceived as the backdrop, not the main actors in the playing out of our everyday lives.

All industry firms need to emphasize these types of “benefits” messages in the marketing efforts of their individual companies. A new publication that summarizes these benefits is entitled Economic, Environmental, and Health/Well-Being Benefits Associated with Green Industry Products and Services: A Review and was published in the Journal of Environmental Horticulture (Issue 29(2):96-103) thanks to the Horticultural Research Institute. Since previous efforts on the part of the industry to provide a united voice through a generic advertising campaign (e.g. Got Milk) have been met with a less-than-enthusiastic response, firm-level marketing of these benefits may be the best alternative (in the short run) to propagate the quality of life value proposition.

Of course, one industry-wide effort that is already in place that has shown to be quite effective in conveying this message is America in Bloom (AIB). Now in its tenth anniversary, the program has countered early naysayers by effectively not only conveying the industry’s message of beautification, but one of economic development, provision of environmental amenities, and enhancement of health and well-being as well. Almost 200 cities and several million citizens have been exposed to AIB’s message; undoubtedly benefiting the countless local businesses in those trade areas. One such business owner stated publicly at this year’s OFA Short Course that they had experienced an 8 percent increase in business during the period their city had participated in America in Bloom. While this alone is impressive, it is exciting to consider that as AIB continues to expand, even more synergistic benefits will likely result.

There is an old adage that says: “If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always gotten.” This latest economic downturn has certainly caused us all to do some things differently than we had been doing them previously. We’re doing more with fewer people and in some cases, fewer resources. But as we move into the future, even more aggressive marketing will be needed to ensure that we are considered as necessities in our consumers’ lives and not mere luxuries. Now is exactly the time to make those strategic marketing investments both as individual firms and through industry-wide efforts.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: America in Bloom, benefits of plants, differentiation, value of landscaping, value proposition

Upcoming webinar on July 19

July 6, 2011 by Charlie

Click anywhere on the announcement below to register for the latest webinar in the series.

Filed Under: Events, Uncategorized Tagged With: webinars

Businomics Blog: Housing Recovery Progressing Very Slowly, 2011 edition

July 2, 2011 by Charlie

Businomics Blog: Housing Recovery Progressing Very Slowly, 2011 edition.

Good housing commentary from Bill Conerly

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: housing industry

Demography is Destiny

June 21, 2011 by Charlie

BNH spoke to Ken Gronbach, author of The Age Curve: How To Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm (AMACOM, 2008) and Common Census: The Counter-Intuitive Guide to Generational Marketing (Ford Odell Group, 2005). Gronbach, who ran an ad shop, KGA Advertising, in Middletown for years, sees in demographic trends reasons to espouse what most would describe as a contrarian view on America’s and China’s economic futures. Gronbach says demographics are destiny and marketers and public decision makers disregard them at their peril. BNH Publisher Mitchell Young interviewed Gronbach.

You had an agency for a long time in Connecticut. How did you transition into demographics guru?

My wife and I opened our own agency in 1979, and one of our signature clients was American Honda Motorcycle. We had all the dealers from the tip of Maine out to Pittsburgh down to Washington, D.C. — about 140 dealers. We were selling motorcycles like crazy, but [suddenly] in 1986, the bikes were shipped to the dealers. They put them on the floor, and no one came in.

Between 1986 and 1992, we tried everything, Honda put their full force behind it to solve the problem, but by 1992, business fell 80 percent and they closed all the dealers.

Was it the economy?

it wasn’t the economy; it was a demographic phenomenon. [Born] between 1965 and 1984, Generation X had nine million fewer people than the baby boomers. From a marketing standpoint, if you dropped the size of your market by over ten percent, you’ve essentially atomized it. We knew we sold motorcycles to men 16 to 24 years old and when the baby boomers exited that age, motorcycle business dropped like a stone. That’s what tipped me off to so many other issues in our marketplace. Generation X closed 30 percent of the public schools; Generation X shut down the motorcycle industry. It didn’t threaten the colleges, ironically, because they [Gen X] went to college at a much higher rate than the baby boomers.

Now Generation X age is into the car-buying age. The best customer for a Detroit automobile is a 43-year-old. That’s when the most miles are put on the car — ferrying the kids around, trips and all that jazz. The baby boomers move on, Generation X moves into the age when they’re expected to buy cars from Detroit at the level of the baby boomers, and Detroit starts firing their ad agencies and firing their presidents because sales are going down. They said, ‘We’re not getting our message out — our SUV sales are way down.’ Well, SUV sales wiped out because the buyers are wiped out. Nobody counted them.

The bottom line was that there were just fewer people to take the boomers’ place?

The most important thing was that we sent our production overseas, primarily to China. The reason for that was during the last 20 years it was an employees market: for every ten jobs being exited by the baby boomers, there were only eight [Generation X] applicants. McDonalds couldn’t even find people.

What is the birth-year range of the baby boom?

The baby boomers were born from 1945 to 1964. The next would be Generation X, and they were born between 1965 and 1984. The peak years for the boomers were between 1957 and 1961; it is a huge bell-shaped curve. Then you have Generation X, but it’s an inverted bell curve. Their lowest birth-rate years were between ’71 and ’74.

So Generation X made an employment shift from the baby boomers?

Generation X did not opt for the technical careers that the Boomers did, like factory work, electricians, plumbers. [Those occupations are] saturated with baby boomers, and boomers went into business for themselves because they couldn’t find work. That’s exactly what we’re facing right now: The kids currently between seven to 26 years old, Generation Y, are facing 50-percent unemployment. My kids can’t find summer jobs, you have to do something else — go into business for yourself. The jobs Generation Y are beginning to fill are jobs exited by Generation X. And X is a small footprint. Companies have achieved efficiencies, they’ve automated, entry-level doesn’t need as many people, a lot of things are bought online, there just aren’t as many opportunities for kids getting out of high school and college.

These demographic numbers are not secrets. So what are major companies or government agencies doing about it?

In 1998, Aetna wanted to buy US Healthcare and a friend on the board wanted me to share my opinion. I said it would be a demographic disaster. The generation that was paying into health-care insurance and using more than they were paying was the generation called the Silent Generation, born 1925 to 1944. They were tiny — their numbers are down around 50 million. The baby boomers’ numbers are up around 80 million. I told them, the Silents are going away, they’re going on Medicare. What’s next is baby boomers are moving into the age where they’re going to be paying into the system and using more [health care] than they’re paying for. You’re expecting the next generation [Gen X] that’s 11 percent smaller to pick up the slack. I couldn’t convince Aetna that this was an obvious demographic disaster. They did it anyway, and then lost $10 billion.

You said that to fix the jobs problem you have to fix the housing market. Why?

What we learned from 2008 was that the housing market is the economy. Seventy-five percent of the housing market in Arizona is foreclosures, which means there is no market. I would tell our legislators, senators and congressmen to enforce President Obama’s Home Affordable Mediation Program [HAMP]. They were supposed to sit down with the homeowners and figure out how to keep people in their homes. Take the foreclosures off the market, and you have shrunk your market in some cases by 60 percent. If you shrink the housing market in Connecticut by 60 percent, the market would come back, home values would go through the roof, it would be a signal to buy, and everybody would be back to work.

There are major assumptions about the growth of China, but you have different viewpoints of China’s future demographics.

Demographers worldwide know what’s going to happen in China. The number of people they prevented from being born through their one-child-only policy was 400 million people. To take 400 million people out of the last 32 years of the population is to literally reduce fertility by 75 percent. They went from 40 million babies per year to approaching ten million per year.

But they have a lot of people, so why would that be a bad thing?

Because you can’t cut a hole in your population. The part of the population that does the heavy lifting are the ones between 40 and 60 years old. So when it becomes the turn of this tiny group of under-30-year-olds to do the heavy lifting, they simply don’t have enough people. Economists have begun writing about their mysterious labor shortage. If you literally cut your fertility rate by 75 percent, you should expect a labor shortage.

They’ve set the stage for their country to go into economic chaos and there’s no reversing it. They simply will not have enough people to produce enough to care for their elderly. Imagine that you’re 70 years old and lost your usefulness as a laborer. You’ve worked 40 years for zip, so you don’t have much saved up, and now the country doesn’t have enough taxpayers to support you. But China never had that system anyway. Their Social Security was called ‘family’ — and they obliterated it.

Aren’t the elderly in China a more or less protected class?

They’re protected culturally by the family, but it has nothing to do with the government. They went from two grandparents with eight children and 32 grandchildren. That was the system that supported the elderly. Now it’s four grandparents, two parents and one child. They don’t even know what the word ‘cousin’ means.

To throw another wrench in the works, [demographer] Nicolas Eberstadt believes the single biggest problem China is going to have is their management model to run the companies. Their model to date has been family, because they don’t trust anyone. There’s no president, two vice presidents and a chain of command; it’s family. And without family running the businesses, the businesses won’t run.

Is there a similar problem in India? They have 1.1 billion people.

Nobody knows how many people are in India; it could well be in excess of China right now. No one knows. The CIA Factbook can guess, but there’s no way to count those people. It could be as much as 750 million in northern India alone. It’s abject poverty and no education whatsoever up there, and probably 20 to 30 years behind China. The southern part of India is where the wealthy people are and they’re doing exactly what the Chinese are doing. So their problems are very similar. Is India in better shape than China? Yeah, in the long term. One, they’re our friend, and China is not. The real problem is their proximity to China.

But aren’t more prosperous Indian families having more children?

We see that wherever the Western culture goes, when people become prosperous they have fewer kids because they enjoy their wealth. They’re more selfish. Here is the big picture: If you live in Spain, France, Portugal or Germany right now, you have come to the conclusion that you’ve made a mistake by not having kids. Because the Muslims are overwhelming you. They’re having ten kids and you’re having none. Only one in seven German couples get married, and they don’t have kids. The E.U. [European Union] is done. If you want to go experience Italy, you’ve got to go now, because in ten years you won’t be able to experience Italy. France is feeling it big time. The problem is that they forgot to have kids. Remember that people precipitate economics, not the other way around. Without people, you don’t have anything.

Ten years is a pretty short time period.

It’s going to happen in our lifetime. When things go south, they go very fast. Look at 2008 — we almost lost the world economy. Once the façade of China is realized you’re going to see [that] as fast as China advanced, it’s going to decelerate.

So the high unemployment rate among Generation Y in the U.S. is because of their large numbers.

Yes. We’re the only industrialized nation in Western culture that had kids. And Generation Y is bigger than the boomer generation. The magic number is about 2.2 — you have to have more than two

    .

    If China is going to have a labor shortage, won’t that be good for the American Generation Y?

    It’s perfect. Manufacturing will start coming back to the States, and it’s going to come back with a vengeance. Colleges are reporting that their populations are 60-40 women. So where are the men?  They don’t need to go to college. The boomers dominated the technical trades. And as they retire, the Generation Y men have picked up on it. Here’s an example: you have twins — a boy and a girl. The boy wants to be an auto mechanic, and the girl wants to be an attorney. She goes through four years of high school, then to a good four-year college. At 22 she goes through another three years of school to become an attorney. Now she’s 25, and has $300,000 in student loans. She gets her first job and makes $60,000, not a bad start.

    Her brother goes through four years at a technical school. He gets out at 18 and goes to a Mercedes dealership and is an apprentice for two years. He buys his own tools over that time, and then at 20 years old they offer him a full-time job and pay him $100,000. At this point his sister is still in her third year of college, and at 25 he’s already made half a million dollars, while she’s in debt $300,000.

    You asked about my advice for our governor: Spend some money on our technical schools, because that’s where the big dividends will be.

    In Connecticut we believe that college is where the dividends are.

    So what you’ll have is a bunch of highly educated people that have no jobs.

    Many complain about the inability of the young kids to get down and work. Why?

    You haven’t felt the effect of Generation Y yet. Their peak birth rate was around 1990, so they’re only 21 years old. You’re not going to feel them for another three to five years.

    What will they be like in the workplace?

    You’re going to hire the best people you ever hired, the smartest people you ever hired, and you’re going to have the best choice of people you ever had. You’ll run an ad and people are going to wrap around your building. They’re going to come in, and they’re going to understand that hard work is a condition of employment. They’re not going to call in ‘tired.’ Believe me, Generation Y is going to be the most productive generation in our history. A tremendous influx of people will pour into our labor system. And that’s good for insurance, because they’ll be paying in and not using it.

    But because they’re young and healthy, won’t they not buy insurance?

    They’ll buy insurance because they’re going to get married younger. And that’s because you’ll have a whole crop of young men that are going to be making a livable wage at 21 instead of 27.

    What do people need to know that they don’t know now — what do we need to fix?

    There’s a shortage of dads. Half the babies born in the U.S. today don’t have dads. According to Eberstadt, who has roots in secular demography, the strength of the U.S. is faith and family, and he’s not saying that as an evangelist. We need to make sure our kids understand that it’s important to get married and it’s important to keep your word and it’s important to be responsible, and it’s important to have children. There was a 20-year interval where we didn’t have [enough] babies. Not having them between 1965 and 1984 is what created the problem for consumption and labor.

    Well, today Americans are reacting to immigration in part because of the job market.

    Immigration is our strength. The immigrants who came in filled in the hole in Generation X. Latinos poured into the country because that’s where the opportunity was. Let’s say Latinos assimilate in 20 years; their kids won’t even speak Spanish. The stats of the number of Latinos in the military is overwhelming. If they’ll fight for the country, they want to be Americans. In 2025, we will begin a new generation called the ‘Baby Blenders.’ Our kids will intermarry because they don’t see color or race any more. We’ll look like Derek Jeter.

    Filed Under: News Tagged With: demographics, trends

    Outlook: Manufacturing Strength Despite Slow Economy

    June 21, 2011 by Charlie

    A host of factors, ranging from the tsunami in Japan to higher oil prices, have conspired to weaken the outlook for the overall U.S. economy, yet the manufacturing sector continues to forge ahead, according to the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI U.S. Industrial Outlook, a quarterly report that analyzes 27 major industries.

    “The positive momentum of a 2 percent reduction in payroll taxes this year and 100 percent expensing of equipment and software investments has been more than offset by higher oil prices, and Japanese automakers in the U.S. faced a parts shortage as a result of the tsunami,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI and author of the analysis. “Manufacturing, though, is currently well positioned for growth. There is pent-up demand for consumer durables, firms are profitable and need to spend more for both traditional and high-tech business equipment, and strong growth in emerging economies is driving U.S. exports.”

    By supplying major assumptions for the economy and running simulations through the IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Model, the Alliance generates unique macroeconomic and industry forecasts.

    Manufacturing industrial production, measured on a quarter-to-quarter basis, grew at a 7 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011, after expanding at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010. MAPI forecasts that manufacturing production will increase 6 percent in 2011 and advance by 4 percent in 2012.

    Production in non-high-tech manufacturing expanded at a 5.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2011. According to the MAPI report, non-high-tech manufacturing production (which accounts for 90 percent of the total) is expected to increase 5 percent in 2011 and 4 percent in 2012. High-tech industrial production rose at a 21 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2011. MAPI anticipates this sector will post strong 15 percent growth in 2011 and 13 percent growth in 2012.

    As shown in the new report, 18 of the 27 industries MAPI monitors had inflation-adjusted new orders or production above the level of one year ago, two more than reported in the previous quarter, and four industries remained flat. Industrial machinery grew by 32 percent in the three months ending April 2011 compared to the same period one year earlier, while mining and oil and gas field machinery production improved by 29 percent in the same time frame.

    The largest drop came in housing starts, which declined 15 percent. Private nonresidential construction experienced an 11 percent decline.

    Meckstroth reports that five industries are in the accelerating growth (recovery) phase of the business cycle; 17 industries are in the decelerating growth (expansion) phase; two industries appear to be in the accelerating decline (either early recession or mid-recession) phase; and three are in the decelerating decline (late recession or very mild recession) phase of the cycle.

    The report also offers economic forecasts for 24 of the 27 industries. MAPI forecasts that 21 of the 24 industries will show gains in 2011, led by mining and oil and gas field machinery, and industrial machinery, each with expected 26 percent growth. One industry, electric lighting equipment, will remain flat. The recovery should continue in 2012 with growth likely in 23 of 24 industries, including five industries that are predicted to grow at double-digit rates, led by housing starts at 61 percent, albeit from depressed levels, and communications equipment at 16 percent. Public works construction is the only industry anticipated to decline, by 2 percent, in 2012.

    Filed Under: News Tagged With: recovery

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