If so, click here.
Valuable data tool available
GeoFRED™ is a data-mapping tool that displays color-coded data on the state, MSA and county levels. For example, GeoFRED can display unemployment, labor force and population for all U.S. counties. Users can select among 19,000 FRED® data series and customize these printable maps according to size, scope and detail. Those seeking to get a better handles on their local trade area will find this tool useful.
HT: NY Times Economix Blog
Parable of "The Man Who Sold Hot Dogs"
There was a man who lived by the side of the road and sold hot dogs.
He was hard of hearing so he had no radio.
He had trouble with his eyes so he read no newspapers.
But he sold good hot dogs.
He put up signs on the highway telling how good they were.
He stood on the side of the road and cried; “buy a hot dog, mister?
And people bought.
He increased his meat and bun orders.
He bought a bigger stove to take care of his trade.
He finally got his son home from college to help him out.
But then something happened.
His son said, “Father, haven’t you been listening to the radio?
Haven’t you been reading the newspapers?
There’s a big depression.
The European situation is terrible.
The domestic situation is worse.”
Where upon the father thought, “well, my son’s been to college, he reads the papers and he listens to the radio, and he ought to know.”
So the father cut down on his meat and bun orders, took down his advertising signs, and no longer bothered to stand out on the highway to sell his hot dogs.
And his hot dog sales fell almost overnight.
“You’re right, son” the father said to the boy.
“We certainly are in the middle of a great depression.”
Hat Tip (HT) to Neil Mattson for the link.
Signs of vibrancy
Now, after months of seemingly nonstop bad news, there are hopeful signs on the horizon. Below the surface of gloom, there are signs of a new vibrancy. They include:
- A broad rally in stocks, confirmed last Thursday, continuing into this week and led by the beaten-down financials.
- A surprising 22% surge in February housing starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000 units.
- A back-to-back jump in retail sales ex autos, in both January and February.
- A return to profitability at several major banks, including Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan.
- A doubling in the obscure but important Baltic Dry Index, a key indicator of global trade flows.
- An upwardly sloping yield curve, which Fed research suggests all but ensures a rebound by year-end.
- A Housing Affordability Index that has hit an all-time high.
- A two-month improvement in wholesale used-car prices, measured by the Manheim Index.
- A rise in Monster’s Employment Index in February, suggesting a turn in the job market may be around the corner.
- A 4 1/2-year high in the dollar against other major currencies, on a trade-weighted basis.
- A sharp increase in the money supply, as measured by M2 and M1. Weekly M2 growth has averaged 10.1% year-over-year since the start of 2009, while M1 has grown at a 14.6% rate.
- A two-month rally in the Index of Leading Indicators.
- A growing body of evidence that the “liquidity crunch” is dead. Data show nearly $14 trillion in liquidity on the sidelines of the markets, ready to boost consumer spending, credit growth or further stock market gains.
Data Source: IBD Editorial
A quality mindset
My sister is a quality control guru. She recently started a new blog on the subject, which I thought insightful, so I am sharing her first post with Making Cents readers. See below.
I believe that for companies to succeed now and in the future, organizations need to focus on quality management principles. So what are characteristics of a company focused on quality? A good question and I’m glad you asked. 🙂
These companies will have the following:
1) A total commitment to continually increasing their value to customers, investor and even their employees.
2) An understanding that market driven is quality defined by the customer not the company
3) Commitment to continuous improvement and communication
4) Understanding that sustained growth requires success of four key factors: a) customer satisfaction, b) cost leadership, c) effective human resources, d) competent supply base
5) Commitment to improvement through knowledge, skills, problem solving and teamwork!
Typically, if the above is part of a company’s culture, the accounting metrics will fall into place. One thing that you notice is the mention of “customer” in several of these. Unfortunately and not always accurately, the assumption is that the customer also has these same principles and acts accordingly. As we all know from experience, this is not always the case, so we have to also take this into account when trying to determine and define what customers value.
The second thing that you might notice is the mention of the need for improving. Every move toward a global marketplace (from local to regional to national and ultimately to world markets) increases the level of competitiveness between organizations. As we continue to compete globally and the players in the global market increases, there will always be a need to improve because there will always be another organization out there trying to outdo or outmaneuver us. We should never get caught thinking that being close to perfect is good enough.
BB Blues…
Nothing like being on vacation in a remote area of Texas to remind me of the woeful cellular coverage of my Blackberry 8800 (AT&T;). Actually, it’s more of a reminder of my addiction to technology, but that’s another matter altogether.
Back to my original point. My wife’s freebie cellular phone consistently puts my BB to shame, getting 3-4 more strength-of-signal bars, even at home. I’d be curious if anyone has found a work-around or fix (to my coverage problem, not my addiction). I wonder if the new BB Bold performs better? Surgical implantation of rabbit ears?
Comments welcome as usual.
Housing Affordability at Record High
OK, I am on vacation but blogging counts as relaxation, right?
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released its latest Housing Affordability Index (HAI), showing that housing affordability reached an all-time, historic record high of 166.8 in January (see chart above). A HAI of 166.8 would mean that the typical household earning the median family income of $59,821 in January would have 166.8% of the qualifying income to purchase a median-priced existing single-family house ($169,900) with a 20% down payment, which would be the highest level of housing affordability since the NAR started reporting housing affordability in 1971 (see chart below).
Since mid-2006, the HAI has risen by more than 67 points, from 99.6 in July 2006 to 168.8. Stated differently, the annual qualifying income required to purchase a median-price house (with a 20% down payment) is only $35,856, with monthly payments based on a 5.21%, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ($747.19 per month for principal and interest). Given the median family income of about $59,821, the typical family would have 166.8% of the income required to qualify for the mortgage to purchase the $169,900 home.
The historic surge in housing affordability to a new record-high will play an important role in the real estate market’s recovery. Interestingly, the record-high level of housing affordability over the last several months has gone almost unreported by the media. The media seems trigger happy in its coverage of every possible bit of bad news about the real estate market and economy in general, but never covers some of the obvious, “mustard seed” signs of economic recovery, like record high housing affordability.
A better week for stocks and, hopefully, confidence.
A week of gains, and not small ones either. The question on people’s mind now is what’s behind the rise and will it last.
Much of the rally appears to have been driven by activity in the drugs sector. A flurry of mergers this week sparked gains that overcame downward momentum in energy. Also, a few of the big banks came out and said they actually made money in the first two months of the year.
Now, making a few million bucks at the very start of the year after being rescued by government billions isn’t exactly a signal that all is well with the financials, but after the battering suffered by the likes of Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), it is apparently enough to spur some buying. As to whether the rally will last or merely sets the stage for a new leg lower, stay tuned.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 53.92 points or 0.8% on Friday to close at 7,223.98. For the week the index was up 9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) added 5.4 points or 0.4% to close at 1,431.50 on Friday, a 10.6% gain for the week. The broader S&P; 500 Index (SPX) rose 5.81 points or 0.8% to close at 756.55 on Friday. The index’s gain for the week came to 10.7%.
Maybe the market trend will continue into next week. Hopefully, the combo of rain this week in the South and temps in the 70’s next week will kick start the season into high gear.
Weather and retail sales report
Despite the economy going into a tail spin, retail industry same-store sales were on the high side of expectations (-0.1% vs expectations of -1% to -2%) and in many cases exceeded expectations, especially Wal-Mart which blew away it’s own expectations with a +5.1% gain.
There was some discussion that lower gasoline prices helped the industry but an analysis reveals that’s most likely not the reason for the stronger gains. As the chart below shows, gasoline prices have steadily risen by $0.27 gallon from December to February so that certainly didn’t help boost disposable income. Unemployment went from 7.2% to 8.1% so that didn’t help retailers any. So what was difference from the earlier Winter months when retail sales were the worst in decades to the better February? MUCH BETTER WEATHER!
In December we had a slew of negatives for retailers with the coldest conditions in 8 years, 2nd wettest in 16+ years and snowiest in 20+ years with the snowiest week prior to Christmas in over 100 years resulting in the worst retail sales ever despite easy comparisons to a year ago. Yet unemployment was lower than February and gas prices much lower than February so it was all about the weather creating the PERFECT STORM for the abysmal industry results.
Then came January which had a few more positives but cold and snow was still extreme and despite worse unemployment, higher gas prices retail sales were not as bad December and higher than expected.
Then there’s February – much worse unemployment, worst stock market plunge since the Depression, $0.27 gallon higher gas prices than December and very tough comparisons to a year ago retail sales, yet the industry comes in much higher than expected? Why? Maybe consumers felt a bit of Spring in the air with 1,581 new record high temperatures, warmest February in 4 years, least snow in 7 years and driest in 13 years? All very favorable trends for higher store traffic and higher retail sales. Click on chart below to enlarge.
Companies change strategies for different reasons
Companies change strategies for a host of reasons, external (broad economic changes, competitors’ moves) and internal (the results of a strategic planning process). But two reasons stand out, a recent McKinsey survey of global executives found. Each executive was asked what drove the largest strategic initiative in his or her company during the previous fiscal year, excluding strategic shifts made in response to a competitor’s move or to the current economic turmoil. Two drivers together accounted for more than half the moves: a major product innovation (31%) and entering a new market segment (22%). Click on the graph above to enlarge.