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New Estimates of the Housing Wealth Effect

May 1, 2012 by Charlie

A new report from the NBER by Charles W. Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer, and William Miles shows that “on average, a single dollar increase in housing wealth raises consumption by between five and eight cents.”

If the value of a homeowner’s house rises by one dollar, how much will that homeowner increase spending on consumption? In The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution, and Wealth Shares (NBER Working Paper No. 17740), authors Charles Calomiris, Stanley Longhofer, and William Miles determine that the impact of housing wealth on consumer spending depends crucially on the age and wealth distribution within states, as well as on the share of housing wealth relative to total wealth. In particular, they find that young people, who are more likely to be credit-constrained, and older homeowners, who are likely to be “trading down” on their housing stock, experience the largest housing wealth effects. Housing wealth effects also are higher in years when housing wealth shares represent a larger portion of overall wealth an d in years with higher poverty rates. Thus, there tends to be huge variation over time and across states in the size of housing wealth effects.

For this study, the researchers constructed a new annual dataset for each of the U.S. states for the period 1981-2009, taking into account the relative amount of state-level housing and securities wealth in any given year. They also considered differences in age distribution and poverty rates, both across states and over time, because housing wealth effects tend to be larger in state-years with high proportions of young and old people, and in state-years with higher poverty rates. In addition, they estimated holdings of corporate stock in each state by calculating aggregate U.S. stock wealth and multiplying by each state’s share of aggregate mutual fund holdings.

Calomiris, Longhofer, and Miles find that consumption responds positively to innovations in both housing wealth and securities wealth, but that housing wealth effects are significantly larger than stock wealth effects. They estimate that on average, a single dollar increase in housing wealth raises consumption by between five and eight cents. In contrast, the same dollar increase in the value of securities wealth raises consumption by less than two cents. Nonetheless, there is substantial variation across states and over time in both of these consumption responses to wealth changes, which are related to the age, poverty, and wealth characteristics of various states at particular points in time.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: housing industry, recovery

Relationship between tree canopy and crime

April 28, 2012 by Charlie

Publication year: 2012

Source:Landscape and Urban Planning

Austin Troy, J. Morgan Grove, Jarlath O’Neil-Dunne

The extent to which urban tree cover influences crime is in debate in the literature. This research took advantage of geocoded crime point data and high resolution tree canopy data to address this question in Baltimore City and County, MD, an area that includes a significant urban–rural gradient. Using ordinary least squares and spatially adjusted regression and controlling for numerous potential confounders, we found that there is a strong inverse relationship between tree canopy and our index of robbery, burglary, theft and shooting. The more conservative spatially adjusted model indicated that a 10% increase in tree canopy was associated with a roughly 12% decrease in crime. When we broke down tree cover by public and private ownership for the spatial model, we found that the inverse relationship continued in both contexts, but the magnitude was 40% greater for public than for private lands. We also used geographically weighted regression to identify spatial non-stationarity in this relationship, which we found for trees in general and trees on private land, but not for trees on public land. Geographic plots of pseudo-t statistics indicated that while there was a negative relationship between crime and trees in the vast majority of block groups of the study area, there were a few patches where the opposite relationship was true, particularly in a part of Baltimore City where there is an extensive interface between industrial and residential properties. It is possible that in this area a significant proportion of trees is growing in abandoned lands between these two land uses.

 

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: benefits of plants

Valentine’s Day Consumer Insights 2012

March 12, 2012 by Charlie

Valentine’s Day Consumer Insights 2012 | Think Insights with Google.

Interesting insights from Google regarding online Valentine’s Day shopping behavior.

 

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Discover the Surprising Side of Plants

March 12, 2012 by Charlie

America in Bloom has announced the release of a 12-page, full color educational brochure titled, “Discover the Surprising Side of Plants.” Based on research and publications by America in Bloom (AIB) board member Charles Hall, PhD of Texas A&M and others, the brochure summarizes benefits of plants “beyond pretty” for people, communities, neighborhoods, and even offices. Illustrated with photos from many participating America in Bloom towns, the brochure concludes that “quality landscapes are a necessity, not a luxury.”

A PowerPoint presentation based on the brochure is available for teachers to use in their curricula and for others to share in their own presentations.

The brochure will be offered to attendees at the AIB exhibit at the Philadelphia Flower Show, OFA’s Short Course and other venues. AIB sponsors at the gold or higher level are eligible to receive up to 500 complimentary copies.

“This piece is an ideal promotional tool for nurseries and garden centers. We feel so strongly about the benefits of plants to the well-being of people, towns, and even the economy, that we are offering the printed brochure to interested parties at our cost, plus shipping,” says Marvin Miller, AIB’s president.

To download the brochure and related presentation, go to www.americainbloom.org/discover_plants.aspx.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: America in Bloom, benefits of plants

Bernanke to deliver lecture series

March 1, 2012 by Charlie

The Federal Reserve Board announced on Thursday that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will deliver a series of lectures aimed at college students. Beginning on March 20, he will lead four classes on “The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis” as part of a course offered to undergraduates at the George Washington University School of Business. The class will feature a variety of speakers who will discuss central banking. Chairman Bernanke’s lectures are scheduled for March 20, 22, 27 and 29 and will begin at 12:45 pm EDT.

To access the lecture series live, use the following link: http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve

More info: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/lectures/about.htm

Visit website

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: financial markets

A response to the Yahoo study claiming agriculture & horticulture degrees are considered useless

January 21, 2012 by Charlie

Here is an open letter circulated by the Dean at Chico State in spouse to the misinformed Yahoo-referenced study:

“Useless” or Essential? Why Our Agriculture Majors Are Growing

By Jennifer Ryder Fox

After reading the January 19, 2012 Yahoo Education article “College Majors That Are Useless,” one might be led to believe that the author, Terence Loose, has something against eating, wearing clothes, enjoying a natural landscape, or smelling a bouquet of roses. What other reason could he have for singling out Agriculture, Animal Science, and Horticulture as three of the five most useless degrees? Mr. Loose’s rationale and indeed the original ranking mentioned in the article are certainly not based on fact.

In contrast to the Yahoo article, a Purdue University study funded by the USDA projected an estimated 54,400 annual openings for college graduates in food, renewable energy, and the environment between 2010 and 2015. The study projected only 53,500 qualified graduates will be available each year and stated that employers have expressed a preference for graduates from colleges of agriculture and life sciences that tend to have more relevant work experience and greater affinity for those careers.

Further demonstrating the need for educated agriculturalists, the November 2009 Monthly Labor Review projected particularly strong (double-digit) growth in certain agricultural careers such as agricultural inspectors, animal scientists, food scientists and technologists, natural sciences managers, pest control workers, soil and plant scientists, and veterinarians. A mere two weeks ago, the Washington Post printed the results of a Georgetown University study showing that recent college graduates with degrees in agriculture and natural resources were among those with the lowest unemployment rates in the nation at 7 percent, surpassed only by graduates with degrees in health (5.4 percent) and education (5.4 percent).

Across the country state support of public universities is dwindling, and the consequence of budgetary decreases is seen with some universities making choices about programs to reduce or eliminate. In a few states, agricultural programs have been targeted for reduction or even elimination. State supported universities in California have also been affected by reduced state budgets, but there’s no talk of eliminating any of the universities’ agricultural programs, as agriculture is the top economic driver in California and generates over $33 billion in revenue for the state while producing over 350 products. Rather, the effect of reduced state support has been to tighten our belts and look to external grants and contracts and other funding sources so that we can serve our increasing number of students.

The California Community College Centers for Excellence recently completed an environmental scan of the agriculture value chain in California and found that there are currently 2.5 million individuals employed in more than 800 job titles within the agriculture value chain in the state. The average annual salary for agricultural value chain workers is $50,000. While the number of production jobs is expected to decrease in the next five years, a net increase of 181,000 jobs is expected throughout the entire agricultural value chain, which includes support, research, technology, production, processing/packaging, marketing, and sales and distribution. No one disputes that with advanced technology and mechanization, skilled production jobs in agriculture (or any field for that matter) have decreased and will most likely continue to give way to mechanization.

Here at CSU, Chico, the optimism for agricultural careers can be seen in the 50 percent enrollment growth in programs offered through the College of Agriculture during the past five years. And across the country, agriculture programs are seeing a surge in student interest. Clearly, our students and those in other ag programs are seeing the tremendous career opportunities available in agriculture and are jumping at the opportunity to pursue them, Mr. Loose’s puzzling attack on their choice of major notwithstanding.

Jennifer Ryder Fox is the dean of the College of Agriculture at California State University, Chico.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Econ factoid of the day

January 19, 2012 by Charlie

According to the Census Bureau’s 2010 American Community Survey, the college majors that give you the best chance of reaching the “1 percent” are pre-med, economics, biochemistry, zoology and biology, in that order. Just sayin’…

via economix.blogs.nytimes.com

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: tren

3 misconceptions that need to die

January 15, 2012 by Charlie

HT to Sid Raisch for this link — http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/10/25/3-misconceptions-that-need-to-die.aspx, Morgan Housel, October 25, 2011

At a conference in Philadelphia earlier this month, a Wharton professor noted that one of the country’s biggest economic problems is a tsunami of misinformation. You can’t have a rational debate when facts are so easily supplanted by overreaching statements, broad generalizations, and misconceptions. And if you can’t have a rational debate, how does anything important get done? As author William Feather once advised, “Beware of the person who can’t be bothered by details.” There seems to be no shortage of those people lately.

Here are three misconceptions that need to be put to rest.

Misconception: Most of what Americans spend their money on is made in China.

Fact: Just 2.7% of personal consumption expenditures go to Chinese-made goods and services. 88.5% of U.S. consumer spending is on American-made goods and services.

I used that statistic in an article last week, and the response from readers was overwhelming:Hogwash. People just didn’t believe it.

The figure comes from a Federal Reserve report. You can read it here.

A common rebuttal I got was, “How can it only be 2.7% when almost everything in Wal-Mart(NYSE: WMT  ) is made in China?” Because Wal-Mart’s $260 billion in U.S. revenue isn’t exactly reflective of America’s $14.5 trillion economy. Wal-Mart might sell a broad range of knickknacks, many of which are made in China, but the vast majority of what Americans spend their money on is not knickknacks.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics closely tracks how an average American spends their money in an annual report called the Consumer Expenditure Survey. In 2010, the average American spent 34% of their income on housing, 13% on food, 11% on insurance and pensions, 7% on health care, and 2% on education. Those categories alone make up nearly 70% of total spending, and are comprised almost entirely of American-made goods and services (only 7% of food is imported, according to the USDA).

Even when looking at physical goods alone, Chinese imports still account for just a small fraction of U.S. spending. Just 6.4% of nondurable goods — things like food, clothing and toys — purchased in the U.S. are made in China; 76.2% are made in America. For durable goods — things like cars and furniture — 12% are made in China; 66.6% are made in America.

Another way to grasp the value of Chinese-made goods is to look at imports. The U.S. is on track toimport $340 billion worth of goods from China this year, which is 2.3% of our $14.5 trillion economy. Is that a lot? Yes. Is it most of what we spend our money on? Not by a long shot.

Part of the misconception is likely driven by the notion that America’s manufacturing base has been in steep decline. The truth, surprising to many, is that real manufacturing output today is near an all-time high. What’s dropped precipitously in recent decades is manufacturing employment. Technology and automation has allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewer workers than in the past. One good example: In 1950, a U.S. Steel (NYSE: X  ) plant in Gary, Ind., produced 6 million tons of steel with 30,000 workers. Today, it produces 7.5 million tons with 5,000 workers. Output has gone up; employment has dropped like a rock.

Misconception: We owe most of our debt to China.

Fact: China owns 7.8% of U.S. government debt outstanding.

As of August, China owned $1.14 trillion of Treasuries. Government debt stood at $14.6 trillion that month. That’s 7.8%.

Who owns the rest? The largest holder of U.S. debt is the federal government itself. Various government trust funds like the Social Security trust fund own about $4.4 trillion worth of Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve owns another $1.6 trillion. Both are unique owners: Interest paid on debt held by federal trust funds is used to cover a portion of federal spending, and the vast majority of interest earned by the Federal Reserve is remitted back to the U.S. Treasury.

The rest of our debt is owned by state and local governments ($700 billion), private domestic investors ($3.1 trillion), and other non-Chinese foreign investors ($3.5 trillion).

Does China own a lot of our debt? Yes, but it’s a qualified yes. Of all Treasury debt held by foreigners, China is indeed the largest owner ($1.14 trillion), followed by Japan ($937 billion) and the U.K. ($397 billion).

Right there, you can see that Japan and the U.K. combined own more U.S. debt than China. Now, how many times have you heard someone say that we borrow an inordinate amount of money from Japan and the U.K.? I never have. But how often do you hear some version of the “China is our banker” line? Too often, I’d say.

Misconception: We get most of our oil from the Middle East.

Fact: Just 9.2% of oil consumed in the U.S. comes from the Middle East.

According the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. consumes 19.2 million barrels of petroleum products per day. Of that amount, a net 49% is produced domestically. The rest is imported.

Where is it imported from? Only a small fraction comes from the Middle East, and that fraction has been declining in recent years. So far this year, imports from the Persian Gulf region — which includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — have made up 9.2% of total petroleum supplied to the U.S. In 2001, that number was 14.1%.

The U.S. imports more than twice as much petroleum from Canada and Mexico than it does from the Middle East. Add in the share produced domestically, and the majority of petroleum consumed in the U.S. comes from North America.

This isn’t to belittle our energy situation. The nation still relies on imports for about half of its oil. That’s bad. But should the Middle East get the attention it does when we talk about oil reliance? In terms of security and geopolitical stability, perhaps. In terms of volume, probably not.

A roomful of skeptics
“People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe,” said Andy Rooney. Do these numbers fit with what you already believed? No hard feelings if they don’t. Just let me know why in the comment section below.

Fool contributor Morgan Housel owns shares of Wal-Mart. Follow him on Twitter @TMFHousel. The Motley Fool owns shares of Wal-Mart Stores. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of and creating a diagonal call position in Wal-Mart Stores. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: economic forecasts, industry statistics, international trade, trends

Consumer Spending: Lesson from the Telecom Industry – Forbes

December 15, 2011 by Charlie

Consumer Spending: Lesson from the Telecom Industry – Forbes. Good article from Bill Conerly about the composition of consumer spending. Take-home point: Know thy value proposition! (Reading time – 68 seconds)

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: trends

NASS to Reinstate Several Agricultural Estimates Programs

December 14, 2011 by Charlie

Issued December 9, 2011 by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
NASS leadership recently concluded a deliberate review of all programs against mission- and user-based criteria, aimed at finding cost savings and forward-thinking business efficiencies so that timely, accurate and useful data remains available in service to agriculture. In 2011, NASS made several enhancements within its programs and operations to deliver improved results for the American people, including opening a new national operations center in St. Louis that will centralize data collection and service to people who provide and use NASS products and services. These efforts and more over the last year have allowed NASS leadership the flexibility within its budget to retain and reinstate several key reports.
The reinstated programs are:
  • Annual Reports on Farm Numbers, Land in Farms Reports and Farm Income
  • Catfish and Trout Reports (data collection begins Dec. 9; report released Dec. 20)
  • Annual Floriculture Report
  • January Sheep and Goat Report (data collection begins Dec. 23; report date is Jan. 27)
  • July Cattle Report
  • Annual Bee and Honey Report (data collection begins Jan. 23; report date is March 30)
  • Annual Hops Production Report (data collection begins Dec. 9; report date is Dec. 21)
  • Annual Mink Report
  • Fruit and Vegetable in season forecast and estimates
  • Rice Stocks June Report
Recognizing the importance of NASS’s data products and services to U.S. agriculture, NASS will make available any data that falls outside of the scope of the agricultural estimates programs in the 5-year Census of Agriculture. The next census will be conducted beginning January 2013 to reflect activities in the 2012 calendar year. NASS will publish Federal Register notices reflecting these program changes in the near future.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: industry statistics

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