Ellison Chair in International Floriculture
Ellison Chair in International FloricultureTeaching, Research, Extension and Service

Example of good marketing and entertaining as well!

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Commissioned by the California Cut Flower Commission, J Schwanke and the JTV crew traveled all over California filming an exclusive documentary on the flower farms in the Golden State. Making his way across the mountains of Southern California – all the way to the Golden Gate Bridge, J toured some of the largest and most prestigious flower farms in California. His interviews with the owners/managers of each farm are fascinating, and the JTV crew did an excellent job filming the indescribable beauty of the thousands of acres of flowers being grown…the sight of which is mind blowing! The video series provides a great overview of how California flowers are grown, picked, processed, packaged, and shipped.

HT: Mike Mellano

It's official.

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The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007

Are face-to-face meetings the new dinosaurs?

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With the recent announcement of the cancellation of the Southeast Color Connection (the meeting formerly known as the Southeast Greenhouse Conference), it begs the question of “What is the future of person-to-person meetings in our industry?” We have already seen much consolidation of effort in providing trade show opportunities and educational programs over the last decade. The SCC/SGC was a perfect example of such efforts that were made in order to achieve the economies of scale and scope that occur with synergistic collaboration. But now it seems that the attendance at all green industry meetings is either barely holding steady or declining.

Not that this is an entirely new thing, mind you. Attendance at Extension Service meetings have been declining for two-plus decades now (unless CEU’s were offered of course), particularly at meetings of livestock or traditional row-crop producers. The green industry meetings were typically well attended, but then again we were the only growth sector in agriculture for a long time. Not so any more. We too are a mature market and have suffered from the decline in grower numbers, consolidation at all levels of the supply chain, and various competitive conditions that have lead to tighter margins.

So why is this happening? Is it purely economics and the cost of attending such meetings is simply too high of a hurdle for some firms?  Have person-to-person meetings outlived their usefulness in terms of generating sales and/or qualified leads (at trade shows) or disseminating pertinent and useful information (at educational events)? Has information technology (e.g. Google and other search engines; real-time and archived webcasts and webinars; websites, blogs and electronic magazines/newspapers; social media like Facebook & Twitter; etc.) replaced the need to meet face-to-face?  Does the fact that firms in the industry now have direct access to university researchers and private consultants at times convenient to them negate their likelihood of sitting though educational sessions?

There are certainly other questions that need to be asked, but I think the answer is “all of the above” and more. The real question is what do we do about it?  Or maybe the better question is should we do anything about it?  I mean, after all, I myself am guilty. I now publish this blog instead of a newsletter that I used to mail out in order to save costs and, more importantly, provide real-time information that folks can use right now instead of waiting for it to show up in their mailboxes 2 months later. I also relish the fact that webinars have become so popular because they save time and money for all involved. I like doing them and so far evaluations indicate that people like attending. But even webinars are undergoing some structural changes. I have seen that attention spans drop off considerably after 37 minutes (yes the software measures that and isn’t it interesting that it is the same amount of time of a typical TV show). Now that YouTube, Vimeo, etc. are on the scene, we now devour information in 3-5 minute chunks (which is about the same amount of time we spend reading the e-news blasts from industry media moguls as well).  This all points to the trend of time becoming more scare and alternative ways of getting information and establishing/maintaining relationships are getting more plentiful.

Which reminds me, this blog post is getting too long and if you have to scroll down more than 2 times, you probably won’t finish reading this, so I’ll close for now…your thoughts on this?

Pawlow to address water management issues

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COLLEGE STATION — Jonathan R. “Jon” Pawlow will be the Distinguished Lecturer for the eighth Ellison Chair in International Floriculture Distinguished Lecture Series at Texas A&M University on Oct. 27. His topic will be “Emerging Water Resources Issues — What are the Trends? What are the Policy options?”

Pawlow is counsel for the water resources and environment subcommittee of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. He is responsible for matters within the subcommittee’s jurisdiction relating to water pollution control and water infrastructure, wetlands, hazardous waste cleanup, and water resources management, conservation, and development.

The event will begin at 2 p.m. on October 27 with a reception in the Horticulture and Forest Science Building atrium, and his address will begin at 3 p.m. in Room 102.

The Distinguished Floriculture Lecture Series is sponsored by the Texas A&M Horticultural Sciences department’s Ellison Chair in International Floriculture, currently held by Dr. Charlie Hall.

“Given the importance of water across all sectors of agriculture, we are extremely excited to have Jon as our next lecturer, given his vast knowledge and experience with water-related issues in the country,” Hall noted.

Pawlow is an attorney and scientist/engineer with expertise in the environmental and intellectual property fields. He has more than 15 years of private law practice experience, and substantial public sector legislative, regulatory, law, policy, and technical experience with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and as assistant chief counsel with the Office of Advocacy of the U.S. Small Business Administration prior to joining the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

He earned his law degree from the Georgetown University Law Center, and bachelor’s and master’s degrees in water resources engineering and environmental science from Rutgers University. Pawlow is a member of the District of Columbia and Virginia Bars, and is registered as a patent attorney to practice before the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

The latest consumer news

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There has been some relatively good news regarding consumer spending lately…consider these tidbits:

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index which had declined in July, improved moderately in August — source.
  • We did not see a significant decrease in back-to-school spending despite the continued concerns over the economy — source.
  • There is strong evidence that firms who are focused on their core customers continue to prosper — source.
  • The demand for lawn and garden consumables like fertilizers, pesticides, growing media, seeds, mulch, etc. are expected to increase by 3.4 percent per year through 2014 — source.

Reducing future deficits while stimulating today's economy

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How can Congress reduce future deficits while stimulating today’s economy?  University of Delaware economist Laurence Seidman argues that legislators should enact a budget that maintains balance under normal unemployment levels, and a fiscal stimulus package with a clause that phases out the package as the economy returns to full employment. Want to read more? Click here.

Is the U.S. facing an inevitable tax crisis?

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Is shifting demography moving the United States closer and closer to a state, federal and municipal tax crisis? The Bureau of Labor Statistics makes it clear that the heavy lifting in both personal earnings and consumption in the United States peaks in a bell shaped curve right at about age fifty. That is when our consumer spending and earnings are at their height. It would follow then that the Internal Revenue Service would depend heavily on folks forty to sixty years old.  You might even narrow it down more to forty-five to fifty-five years old.  The same would follow for states that are dependent on sales and consumption taxes and local governments that get big revenue from big houses.  It is also interesting that the peak birth years for the huge Baby Boomer Generation were 1957 through1964 when United States live birth numbers exceeded four million per year. This super-imposes the very top of the Boomer birth bubble directly over the most productive tax paying years in the age continuum at this writing.  You could consider it serendipitous that the current financial crisis in the United States occurred at exactly the time when we had a huge block of high rolling Baby Boomer tax payers to pay into the system and bail us out. As the Baby Boomers age out of their premium tax paying years Generation X ages in. Generation X was born 1965 to 1984 and is currently aged 26 to 45 years old. Generation X is 11% smaller than the Baby Boomers with about nine million fewer people. It simply does not have the critical mass to produce or consume at the level of the Baby Boomers and will not be able to pay taxes at the level of the Baby Boomers. Can you see where this is going?

There are stages in our lives when different things are expected of us and understanding what is expected of us is very important. When we are born we are totally reliant on others. We eat a lot and produce nothing. If we were left alone we would die. We gradually become more and more self-reliant as we age. In theory at least when we are in our twenties we begin to make our own way. We can provide for ourselves. What we eat is on par with what we produce. As we age through our thirties we begin to produce more than we eat so we provide for others who are producing less than they eat. As we age through our forties the dependence of others, both young and old, on our ability to produce a lot more than we eat becomes very great and peaks at age fifty when we are at the height of our producing. Between fifty and sixty our production begins to diminish as does the reliance of others on our ability to provide. Between sixty and eighty we tend to be self reliant, meeting our own needs. After eighty the total dependence starts all over again. We can no longer effectively produce but we still eat and require care. This principal of reliance and provision can be found in families, cultures and countries throughout the world. It is a very old principal that dates back to early man. It is a natural balance. This principal is so powerful it drives economies and provides health to nations.

So what does Generation X have to do with this principal? Generation X is small owing in large part to the reduced fertility in the U.S. between 1965 and 1984. It has about nine million fewer people in its ranks than the Baby Boomer Generation it follows and about eleven million fewer people than Generation Y right behind it. Generation X, now twenty six to forty-five years old, is taking over the role of the Nation’s provider and it can’t possibly succeed because it doesn’t have the critical mass. As a nation we will begin to feel this phenomenon intensify over the next ten years as we try to tax this generation to meet our needs. Federal, state and local taxes will all suffer-big time. Democrats and Republicans will point fingers at each other for over spending but the real issue will be tax revenues will drop like a stone when Generation X is expected to do the heavy lifting.

So are we headed for a tax crisis here in the United States? It looks that way. But wait, before you fall on a sword there are a few bright demographic facts that could save the day. One is the fact that most of the millions of Latino immigrants that poured into our country to fill the entry level labor demand unmet by Generation X are about the same age as Generation X. If they advance socio-economically at an accelerated pace it could be problem solved. In addition, according to Pew Research in a October 2009 study, the African American culture in the United States is experiencing unprecedented economic growth in recent years. Latinos and African Americans make up close to thirty percent of the total United States population. Their collective contribution to state, federal and local taxes could be significant. Lastly, Generation Y born from 1985 to 2004 is beginning to flood the workforce and because they are facing fifty percent unemployment many are starting their own businesses out of necessity. Baby Boomers did the same thing in the seventies. Small businesses are the building blocks for a healthy economy.

Source: Demographic Journal

Hold the date: 2011 National Floriculture Forum

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The National Floriculture Forum (NFF) is an educational meeting of university professors, graduate students, government scientists, and industry leaders in floriculture that has been held annually for over a decade.  This meeting brings together the floricultural community to: (1) address issues of importance to the floriculture industry, (2) form collaborative relationships, and (3) learn more about the floriculture industry and from each other.  This meeting is the only one of its kind and continues to bring more members of the floriculture community together each year.  The importance of the NFF has increased recently as the number of horticulture departments and associated funding levels have decreased.

Texas A&M University is hosting the next NFF on March 10-11, 2011 in Dallas, Texas. This will provide exposure to a wide range of floriculture crops, production facilities, and climatic conditions in the Southwestern region of the U.S.  The impacts of the meeting are far-reaching:  influencing undergraduate and graduate programs at participating universities, strengthening relationships between industry and academia, and bolstering the identity of floriculture.

Forecasting retail sales via satellite

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From Mark Perry’s blog Carpe Diem:

“As part of a growing trend among hedge funds and Wall Street firms, Cold War-style satellite surveillance is being used to gather market-moving information.  The surveillance pictures are often provided by private- sector companies like DigitalGlobe in Colorado and GeoEye in Virginia, which build and launch satellites and take pictures for US government intelligence agency clients and private-sector satellite analysis firms.

That means there are two links in the chain before the satellite data gets to Wall Street—a satellite firm takes the pictures and sells them to an analysis firm, which scrutinizes the images and sells the aggregated data to hedge funds and Wall Street analysts.

UBS analyst Neil Currie had been looking at satellite data on Wal-Mart during each month of 2010, and he’d concluded that there was enough correlation between what he was seeing in the satellite pictures of Wal-Mart’s parking lots to the big-box chain’s quarterly earnings, that he was ready to incorporate that data into UBS’ report on Wal-Mart, which releases its earnings on Tuesday.

Currie purchased his analysis from a small two-year old Chicago-based firm called Remote Sensing Metrics LLC, which had scoured satellite images of more than 100 Wal-Mart stores chosen as a representative sample. By counting the cars in Wal-Mart’s parking lots month in and month out, Remote Sensing Metrics analysts were able to get a fix on the company’s customer flow. From there, they worked up a mathematical regression to come up with a prediction of the company’s quarterly revenue each month.

UBS predicts that Wal-Mart’s second quarter sales will be up from the first quarter, but down a percent against the same period a year ago. But the satellite analysts figure that the number will come in 0.7 percent higher—not lower—based on the traffic surge they saw in the parking lots.”

Read more here.

Labor Outlook

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In its annual Labor Day outlook, global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that the U.S. job market is well on the road to recovery and is actually rebounding sooner and faster compared to the jobless recoveries that followed the previous two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001).  Here are some highlights:

1. At this point in the previous two recoveries – following the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions – the job market was actually getting worse. Many people are so caught up looking at the weekly and monthly numbers, that they fail to look at the bigger trends, which indicate just how much the job market has improved over the last 12 months.  The statistics indicate that the job market has made great strides over the last 12 months and appears to be rebounding sooner compared to the previous two recessions.

2. Monthly job cuts have numbered fewer than 100,000 for 14 consecutive months, a streak that has not been achieved since 1999-2000.  The current 12-month moving average, which stands at 52,778 as of the end of July, is already well below the lowest annual average achieved during the last period of economic expansion, when the moving average bottomed out around 64,000.

3. Job losses due to the recession turned to gains as of January 2010, with payrolls experiencing five consecutive months of net growth that saw more than one million new jobs added to the economy. The gains slowed in June and July as the government shed tens of thousands of temporary Census workers, resulting in overall total non-farm job losses of 352,000 over the two-month period. Despite those losses, payrolls have still seen net growth totaling 654,000 jobs so far this year, due in large part to steady job gains in the private sector. The private sector has had seven consecutive months of job gains, adding a net total of 630,000 new jobs to the economy since January 1.  While the payroll gains remain weak, they are occurring much sooner when compared to the 2001 recession, when it took 21 months before the economy began to add jobs on a consistent basis.

4. While the unemployment rate remains historically high and the decline is not occurring fast enough for most, it definitely appears to be heading in the right direction. If the economy were following the same pattern as the early 1990s recession or the 2001 recession, we would be facing another three to six months of rising unemployment.

5. When you look at any of the employment statistics on a month-to-month or week-to-week basis, there are going to be ups and downs; particularly at this stage of the recovery. However, when you look at the overall trend since June 2009, everything is headed in a positive direction.

6. Hiring will accelerate in the coming months, but not before employers maximize the productivity of their existing workers by adding new technology and increasing hours. In the meantime, the job market will remain fiercely competitive as the recently unemployed square off against the long-term unemployed as well as with job seekers re-entering the labor pool after abandoning it out of frustration.  Job seekers should view Labor Day as the beginning of the workplace New Year and make a resolution to abandon all passive job-search strategies for ones that are far more aggressive.